The World Cup According to Grande: In Search of Sixes
In Search of Sixes
The most elusive result in the world is the 6.00. If you really think about it, 30 people in the world in each discipline are under 6 points. There is only one way to be a sub-6, be in the top 30 in the world on the World Cup Start List. Everyone else is shooting for that 6 point result. It puts you approximately 31st in the world if you get 2 of them. But there is only one way to get one, win a Continental Cup race with a penalty UNDER 6. The minimum penalty for a Continental Cup is 6.00, the only way to arrive at 6 is if there are top 30 guys in the race, and you beat them. The 6 is the most cherished result in skiing for a number of reasons:
1. You can’t get under 6 unless you are in the top 30 on the WCSL. The only way to get there is to score enough points on the World Cup.
2. 2-sixes get a start number of approximately 31 in a World Cup. I say approximately because there are 500 point holders who will start ahead of you if they are in the race and there can be a number of 6 point holders.
3. Six points forces the hand of the National Team to start the holder in World Cups because of the start number.
4. It is coveted by top 30 WCSL athletes as well as a back-up result. If an athlete was to fall out of the top 30 during the season, and he or she owned a couple of sixes, they would only fall to start number 31. We spent a lot of time, energy and money chasing races that would hold a minimum penalty during my time with the ski team trying to get these WCSL back-up results. Not just 6.00 which you would only find at Europa Cup and occasionally at Nor Ams, but also the 9.00 which is the minimum for a normal FIS race.
And with all of that on the line, and everyone wanting those kinds of results, there were 4 of them scored this summer with all of them scored by non-World Cup athletes. I want to take this opportunity to analyze these 4 results and what it could mean to each of the athletes involved and what it can do for their nations.
Johan Oehagen (SWE): Johan was born in 1987 which makes him 23 years old. That age seems to be a point at which there is a make or break on the World Cup. I did a research project a few years ago analyzing everyone in the top 30 in the technical disciplines and how old they were when they scored their first World Cup points. The theory being that you needed to have booked at least 1 World Cup point by your 24th birthday to EVER break into the top 30. It was not definitive in that there are many ways to interpret the results. Nonetheless, at the time of the study, only 1 of the 54 athletes in the top 30 in GS and Slalom scored his first points after his 24th birthday. That person was Truls Ove Karlsen who ended up winning a World Cup race in his career.
Johan scored his 6 by winning an ANC (Australia/New Zealand Cup) slalom in Mt. Hutt this past week. He came into the race with just under 14 points and ranked 106th in the world. If you factor his results at this point he will drop to 9.88 points which will be around 70th in the world. It changes things dramatically for him with start number at other events like Europa Cup, but it also gives him the opportunity to start a World Cup slalom for Sweden as he is now eligible to replace a top 60 WCSL athlete at a World Cup. As a quick explanation, a nation can only replace one of their top 60 WCSL starters at a World Cup with a top 100 athlete in the same discipline OR a 500 point holder on the overall WCSL. His movement into the top 100 also increases Sweden’s Europa Cup quota by 1.
David Chodounsky (USA) 1984: David is 26 years old and has completed school at Dartmouth. He has been plugging away for a long time at this and has done a great job in his career. He made the US Ski Team a year ago by making the top 60 in the World and won the US Alpine Slalom Championship. Now the criteria has changed (seehttps://www.ussa.org/magnoliaPublic/ussa/en/sports/alpine/advancement/team-criteria.html) so this result alone will not put him on the team. IF he matches this result with another 6, it will put him on the team. So look for Dave to be hitting NorAms and Europa Cups to match the result. The early Nor Ams in Colorado normally carry 6 point penalties because of the presence of so many World Cup athletes at that point in the season. Coupled with his other active result, it gives Dave 8.48 points which will slide him into the low 50s in World Rank in slalom. That, in itself, can be a reason to start him in World Cup slaloms as people who start in the 50s regularly score at the World Cup. As well, our slalom team is lacking in depth right now. Jimmy Cochran is our highest ranked slalom guy in 20th, then Ted, Bode and Nolan Kasper round out our top 60 WCSL guys. So our quota is 4, plus one basic spot and Nolan owns a slalom spot from the NorAm standings last year. So, Nolan uses his Nor Am spot, and that opens a slalom slot for a top 100 guy (37 Brandenburg, 61 Ford, 68 Jitloff, 70 Granstrom, 76 Marshall) and while I am not sure of Cody’s health, it does put David ahead of all of the eligible athletes in the top 100 except Will Brandenburg. And if start number really means what we think it means, it gives David as good or better a chance to score than anyone else. The basic spot does not need to be used by top 100 guys so anyone we have available can start. But that start number thing comes up again.
It will be interesting to see how the staff makes the call on this. With a dwindling quota in slalom over the years and a decline in everyone’s rank except Jimmy and Nolan, you have to start wondering how and where we are going to find guys who will score and move into the top 60 and therefore increasing our quota. Will Brandenburg with that high 30s rank is a definite possibility. The good thing about Will is that he is a 4 event guy so he can participate in Combined races as well. And in these days of contracting budgets, it pays to be good in everything.
And now the big shot, Warner Nickerson (USA), 1981: Warner scored 2, count ’em TWO, 6 point results this summer in GS. Both results were in ANC races and both at Coronet Peak. Unfortunately for Warner, who is the best skier we have outside the team, has to make the A Team under the new criteria. There are only 2 ways to make the A Team, win an Olympic Medal or be ranked top 30 on the WCSL in any discipline except Super Combined, in which you need to be top 15 on the WCSL. Regardless, Warner will be ranked 31 in the world in GS and will have a great start number if he gets the start. Our GS quota situation is also tough, made worse by the fact that Bode is not in the top 60 WCSL. We have Ted, Tommy Ford, Tim Jitloff and Jake Zamansky all in the top 60. Jake has retired so that makes his spot available. We also have Nolan Kasper and Will Gregorak owning Nor Am quota spots. And we have the basic quota. So it would seem that the best way to go would be Bode and Warner as Bode is a 500 pointer and will start 31 and Warner would be right behind him. And other than the guys listed here, there are not really many options. Will Brandenburg might be a guy to give a start to, but it is tough to ignore the 31 rank that Warner has. And it would seem like, if the Ski Team were to start someone else, they would appear to be trying to box Warner out of the opportunity to make the A Team. Developmental opportunities for younger guys will be tough to defend as their start numbers will be so poor that it will be almost impossible to qualify for run 2. So I would think, and I would hope, that Warner would get the start in Soelden. The team could run a time trial for the spot, and I have seen those happen before. But they rarely pan-out with results and if you cannot actually time-trial on the race hill, it seems almost a wast
e of time and energy.
The really good news about the 2 Americans coming out of those races down-under with such great results is that our Nor Am races will reflect those scores with better penalties. As well, if either of them decides to race in FIS races around the country, it will help those races produce 9.00 penalties. I am sure they will compete at Nor Ams because the surest way to guarantee a spot at the World Cup is to win a season title in one of the disciplines.
Chasing (and winning) those sixes, eights and nines are extremely important for us as a nation. So we can continue to provide the best possible penalties at our highest levels of domestic racing (Nor Ams), so our best domestic athletes can score the best possible results and in turn provide the lowest possible penalties at our FIS and FISU level races throughout the country. If our best athletes are prepared and talented, they will score from those experiences and build better penalties at our races throughout the different levels of racing. We need to appreciate these scores by athletes like Warner and Dave and then be ready to take advantage when we see them at Nor Am and FIS races. Get ready everyone; it’s time to go get that World Rank!
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Greg “Grande” Needell grew up ski racing at Stratton Mountain,
Vermont. After graduating from SMS he skied for NCAA Division 1 St.
Lawrence University in Canton, NY where he was co-captain in 1986. Greg
returned to SMS to coach there for five years serving as the Head
Women’s Coach as well as the Head J2 Men’s Coach. He then moved to
Mission Ridge in Wenatchee, Washington in 1992 to become the Program
Director and Head Coach of the Mission Ridge Ski Club. In 1997, Greg
became the Head Coach at Mammoth Mountain, California.
In 2002 Needell was asked to join the U.S. Ski Team staff as a World
Cup SL and GS coach. From 2002 to 2008 Needell helped lead the U.S. Ski
Team Men to 43 wins, 105 podiums and 264 top ten finishes. Now at the
helm of Alpine Race Consulting, Needell offers his knowledge and
experience to clubs nationwide.
About the Author: Pete Rugh
