World Cup Rewind: A thrilling forecast for Finals

March Madness is in full bloom on the World Cup circuit, particularly on the women’s side where three women are within 51 points of each other as we enter the four-event World Cup finals. A fourth skier, Renate Goetschl, can be expected to make it even tighter in the early races of the week — the opening downhill followed by super G. She won the first downhill training run Monday on the Finals-hosting Lenzerheide, Switzerland, course and has podiumed on it four times in past seasons. For the time being it is the slalom specialist, Marlies Schild, atop the rankings, 15 ahead of teammate Nicole Hosp and 51 up on American Julia Mancuso.
    Schild can ski some speed, too, though it is not her forté. The question is, can she ski speed better than the speed racers can ski slalom?
MARCH MADNESS is in full bloom on the World Cup circuit, particularly on the women’s side where three women are within 51 points of each other as we enter the four-event World Cup finals. A fourth skier, Renate Goetschl, can be expected to make it even tighter in the early races of the week — the opening downhill followed by super G. She won the first downhill training run Monday on the Finals-hosting Lenzerheide, Switzerland, course and has podiumed on it four times in past seasons. For the time being it is the slalom specialist, Marlies Schild, atop the rankings, 15 ahead of teammate Nicole Hosp and 51 up on American Julia Mancuso.
    Schild can ski some speed, too, though it is not her forté. The question is, can she ski speed better than the speed racers can ski slalom?
    In the case of Goetschl, the answer is emphatically yes. Goetschl has one slalom win, from 14 years and a career ago, and she hasn’t bothered to race one since 2004. A win in the opening DH and a podium in the Finals super G would likely bump Goetschl into the lead, and she can ski some GS, but her lack of slalom likely makes her merely a factor and not a favorite contender for the overall crown.
    Mancuso may have better slalom results (as in any) than Goetschl, but her arsenal also keys in the other three disciplines. Mancuso has won in DH and SG this season and has four top-five results in GS as well. She can make a run at this title, one that hasn’t been won by an American woman since she was born. It will take podiums in the two speed events and probably in GS as well. She won the 2006 Olympic GS, so that’s a definite possibility, but first she’ll need to catch Hosp.
    Hosp’s downhill skills were sufficient to bring her a medal at World Championships. She has been second in three super G’s this season and is leading the GS standings as well as having won the world title in the event. Add to that slalom ability that has produced two second places this season and her threat for the title is clear. She has no weak discipline and has been on four podiums since the World Championships ended. Mancuso, with an exceptional charge over the same period, won three podiums, as did Schild.
    What this all boils down to is an unprecedented three-way — and maybe even four — race to a title, which hasn't had three skiers within 100 points of the winner since the scoring was changed in 1982.
The men’s side hasn’t got the same type of drama despite having six men with a mathematical chance to win. What it does have is a good chance to come down to the final race. Benjamin Raich has a 92-point lead over Didier Cuche (who has fewer slalom results than Goetschl) and a 103-point lead over Aksel Lund Svindal. Both ski better downhill and super G than he, so it can be anticipated his margin will diminish significantly before the final two races of the season. While Cuche can ski some GS, Svindal is superb in the discipline, currently a scant three points behind Raich for that mini-globe. Massimilano Blardone is well in contention for the GS trophy as well, sitting 19 back.
    Like Schild, Raich’s biggest advantage comes in slalom. He needs to remain ahead or at least stay close to Svindal and Cuche through the speed events to win his second consecutive overall title. He has accumulated just 65 points in the 10 downhill and four super G's held this season, so that won’t come easy. The final two races then become increasingly critical.     The race for the GS crown — at least between him and Svindal — could mirror that for the overall.
    The slalom standings show Raich 15 points behind Mario Matt. He has won both the slalom and GS titles twice and so has a full appreciation for the mental process of winning these. If he wins both of those discipline titles he will be virtually unbeatable for the overall as well.
    With warm weather in Lenzerheide, officials are concerned about the speed track holding up. That plays into Raich’s hand.
Bode Miller, Peter Fill and Mario Matt each have an outside chance at the overall crown, but all of them are more than 300 points back with a maximum of 400 available.