The World Cup According to Grande: Americans And Austrians in Beaver Creek and the Queen of Lake Louise

LAKE LOUISE

As the men finished up their event in Lake Louise, the women arrived from Aspen, literally swapping out rooms at the Chateau. The men packed up trucks that would transfer all of the equipment for the entire tour to Avon, Colorado and the athletes and staffs would head to Calgary for a little sleep and an early flight to Denver. The girls then had to hightail it to Denver and flew north, arriving on Monday and starting training on Tuesday.

Now the training is done up north and the women are prepared to get it on in Alberta. I have gone on about what training runs mean or do not mean over the previous week with the men racing in Lake Louise. So as you start picking Lake Louise on www.fantasyskiracer.com and try to figure it all out, remember to look at a few things. You need to look at an athlete’s history at that venue. Obviously, Lindsey Vonn dominates Lake Louise. She has won five straight races here. She has won seven total. She was second once and fifth twice. Her fifth place finishes were in 2004 and 2005. She has won DH races on December 3rd on two different occasions in Lake Louise and has also won a DH on December 4th. And while she has not done much at Lake Louise this week in training we do not know a lot about the performances. We do not know what skis she used, if she was testing set-ups or if she was even trying to win runs. Looking at her splits it is encouraging that she is slow out of the start and on the bottom flat. Indicating that maybe she is not pushing too hard-top to bottom. Discouraging is that she is not dominating the middle sections, which are the turns. But all that being said I cannot pick against her. She has won six of the last seven DH races in Lake Louise and five in a row.

Other favorites would have to be Maria Riesch who has been Lindsey’s greatest foe and the only woman to defeat her at Lake Louise since December 2, 2005. Maria was second today in training and seems sharp. What makes Maria look like a winner this week is that she was slow on the top and bottom like Lindsey but won two middle splits. Elena Fanchini (ITA) was also good in training today finishing third. She has three top 10 finishes at Lake Louise and has a win in 2005. Anja Paerson (SWE) has a strong history as well. She was sixth in training today with consistent splits. She has one podium and four top ten finishes here but also has some very disappointing results where she did not score a point. Her lack of consistency in Lake Louise makes me wary of her even though she was solid today. Today’s training winner, Dominique Gisin (SUI) deserves some consideration too as she has been top ten three different times and was fifth and sixth recently. She will bring confidence into tomorrow based on today’s result.

CANADIANS

I think the home country is going to have little to cheer for unless veteran skier Britt Janyk can pull it together. She is an excellent skier and a strong veteran but seems to be off the back so far this week. She also has no one to push her either with only rookies backing her up on the Canadian start list right now.
 
AMERICANS

I like our chances. Aside from Lindsey’s dominance, Julia, Stacey, Alice, Leanne and Chelsea all have great pasts at Lake Louise. They have all grown up through NorAms racing at Lake Louise and needing to prove themselves at this venue. From even before the Kildow/Vonn era at Lake Louise, we have done very well in World Cups at Lake Louise. Aside from December 2008, when Lindsey was the only person to score (she won); Jules, Stacey and Alice have 10 top 15 finishes on this hill between them. Of which seven are top 10 and two are top five. Julia and Stacey have each been fourth once. Our girls are veterans and successful on this hill and after today’s solid performance, I would look for an epic scoring day. I think Lindsey, Julia and Stacey will all be in the top 10. Alice will be deep in the top 30 and Leanne, Chelsea and Laurenne will all score points. They all have good memories, therefore a lot of confidence.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

Ingrid Jacquemod (FRA) has an excellent history at Lake Louise as does Marie Marchand-Arvier, also of France. Marchand-Arvier is a strong skier and glider who can put down at good performance at Lake Louise. Liz Goergl (AUT) is a decent bet as is Fraenzi Aufbenblatten (SUI) as they are both veterans with solid GS skills to get them through the turning middle section. My last piece of advice is to have a good look at Tina Maze (SLO) who skis on Stoeckli. The men’s SG was won at Lake Louise on Stoeckli and it makes me think she can be good tomorrow. She is also big and strong and an excellent GS skier. On the other hand, I would likely steer clear of Lara Gut, the Swiss junior phenom who is struggling to recover from a hip dislocation last fall and can’t seem to mentally get through it.

EQUIPMENT

Head and Rossignol skis both seemed to run very well today up in Lake Louise and both seem to have been good all week so try to go with those brands when you are in a tough situation to break a tie in your top 10.

START NUMBERS

Fanchini goes five, which I think will help her. It is a late enough so the track will start to break-in. As well, the weather is not extremely cold so the track could glaze early. Gisin is seven, Marchand-Arvier is 11. Lindsey picked 16, right after the scheduled TV break at 15; Maria has 18, Julia 19 and Anja 20, which will provide a lot of action all in a row. Stacey Cook drew 23, which again starts directly after a TV break. Chelsea is 27, Maze 29 and Aufdenblatten 30. We have Leanne racing 33 and Laurenne going 39, which are good numbers in any downhill. Those should be fine in Lake Louise too.

PODIUM

Vonn, Riesch, Mancuso. The USA will be celebrating in Lake Louise with Stacey also in the top 10 and four more girls in the points!
 
BEAVER CREEK

It was an interesting day in Beaver Creek today after an unscheduled off-day yesterday. It’s too bad they could not get the training run off. I did not get the info from the staff there as the Mission Ridge Ski Team girls were racing GS in Vail but I am going to guess it was a visibility issue. Either fog or icing on the goggles. We had both at the race in Vail so I assume that is what happened at “The Beav. Today saw a bunch of Austrians in the top 10 and an encouraging performance from Mr. Miller. Bode was fourth today but was very good on the Flyway which is the top flat from the start to the Brink and Talon Turn. The truth is if you cannot compete on the top 25 seconds, you rarely make it up the rest of the way. But Bode also won splits through all the turning sections down to Golden Eagle and likely shut it down at the bottom. I am very high on him right now with the Head skis running well up top. The Austrians showed five guys in the top 10 today and I think they will have at least three in the top 10 tomorrow, with the possibility of two on the podium. Watch out for Cuche who usually starts to show his experience and skill at Beaver Creek. Aksel Lund Svindal is historically strong at Beaver Creek. In case any of you have forgotten, he bounced back from his horrific injury there with a double win the next year (triple podium) in 2008. Carlo Janka was basically unbeatable there last season.  Walchhofer of course has been consistently good over the years on the Birds of Prey.  With all of that said, we had a cancelled training run which will favor those with an excellent past on the hill and who can draw confidence from their positive experiences. It also favors guys who have been around for a while. So when you start sorting through to pick a top 10, look for guys with a lot of experience and success on this hill. Then look at start number and ski c
ompany. Head ran well today, Rossignol and Atomic have fantastic histories at Beaver Creek. Fischer has also been very successful here.

CANADIANS

Guay has had a very solid career and has been strong at Birds of Prey. But he was not great in Lake Louise and his training this week has been suspect. He was 24th today and not very good in the steep, turny, middle portion. It does not bode well for him so far. Robbie Dixon was strong in 10th place and I have always seen Robbie as a very solid skier, which works well at Beaver Creek. Manny Osborne-Paradis, who is one of the premier Canadian Downhillers, has been less than stellar this week too. But has seems positive in how he interprets is and feels as though he can get it done with some adjustments. He seemed very positive in his tweets today after training. The rest of the guys on the list for Canada are pretty inexperienced and I doubt anything earth-shattering from them on a hill like this with only two training runs.

AMERICANS

I truly think that Bode wins this race. It just seems like it is coming together for him there and with the skis running on the Flyway, he has every reason to be in the hunt. If he can stay out of his own way tactically from The Brink to Screech Owl, watch out. Steven has a fantastic history at The Beav with two podiums and more solid results. He reportedly was trying something “different” today on the training run. He has always done well and I am going to take a shot at him. Weibrecht is again having trouble with his nemesis turns in the Pete’s to Peregrine to Pumphouse section. But he is a guy who punches it every day and who can risk.  You never know what to expect from Andrew but you know he will give you 100% every race day. So if you want to take a shot at a top 10 with a late starter on your picks, Andrew is the guy. Fish is struggling but I see him as a guy who really does well at the big-time European venues and usually needs some ramp-up to the DH season. Look for him to start turning it on at Val Gardena right before Christmas. My last comment on the Americans is that Marco is obviously not doing well. He is on new stuff for him and is likely trying to find a set-up that works for him. He is getting closer and I wish him the best. It is very difficult to get your butt down the hill fast enough to be competitive unless your equipment feel optimized.

OTHERS

Peter Fill (ITA) seems to be bouncing back from his injury and could contend in Colorado. He is very gutsy and is an excellent talent. Innerhofer, also of Italy, is on Rossignol and has Ted’s former service guy, Ales Kalamar. He knows this hill, Ted did well here, and Innerhofer is a good skier. I think he’s in there. David “The Fish” Poisson and Yannick Bertrand of France are very experienced Downhillers and can get it done here. I am a little wary of putting them in the top 10 but if you will choose one of them, choose Poisson. Adrien Theaux, also of France, was good today in training but it seems as though he was not very fast in the tougher sections. Put some race-day pressure on him and I think he does not pull it off.

STAY AWAY FROM

Werner Heel (ITA), Kostelic (CRO), Andrej Jerman (SLO) and Siegmar Klotz (ITA). Heel is still coming back from the broken hand which will cause his aerodynamics to suffer on the flyway and the flat before Golden Eagle Jump. His hand still hurts from surgery too and it just drains you to be in pain all the time. Klotz was ok in training but he does not have the experience to deal with this on race day. There is an anticipation that happens on the BOP that is similar to the big races in Europe. The boys all know it and feel it and it makes some boys raise their game, and others to lose it. Kostelic, I think, will just not be able to compete with the big boys because of the long flat on top and the big jumps. I know, Ivica is a fantastic skier and can likely compete from Talon to Screech Owl and below Golden Eagle but I think that puts him 15th and not fifth. And Andrej “Jerry” Jerman is a very good Downhiller but he seems a little off right now and I look for him to bounce back starting in Bormio.

START NUMBERS

Grugger, who won today, starts three. I just think the top flat will be too slow still at that point. The weather will not be cold and there is a chance of a little precip in the air. That will not help his cause at three. Streitberger (AUT) starts four and I think he is very good. But I have to use the same reasoning on him as Grugger. AND, for both of them, if it really is above 0 Degrees Celsius at race time, they could have to deal with snow that peels away too, optimizing their balance and timing. Dixon goes seven and Guay number 10. I think at that point we will get into some competitive start numbers. Robbie, as I said, should lead the Canadian boys tomorrow. Kroell starts number either and I like him to make some noise. But I really have an issue with number eight winning the race. I just don’t think it will happen. But look to put Klaus in your top 10. Fill at 11 and Bode at 13 I think really starts to ramp up the race. 13 is a very good number for Bode with an early enough start to avoid any roughness and lat enough to get a good glaze on the top flat. Sixteen through twenty see Svindal, Cuche, Scheiber, Janka and Walchhofer in a row. And I think they will be chasing Miller at that point. Not everyone knows this, but there is a mystique at certain races, when Bode takes the lead, that puts pressure on the rest of the guys who think they should win. Beaver Creek is one of those places. Weibrecht starts 23, which I think is great for him. Also watch out for Innerhofer (ITA) at 26 and Romed Baumann (AUT) starting 27 who are both very clean skiers and can make a push to the top 10. For us, Sully starts 29, Ted 33, Ganong goes 37 and Nyman 38. Fish goes 52 and Tommy Ford 66.

PODIUM:

Miller, Innerhofer, Cuche