Are: Hank's Handicap: The downhill

There have been seven men’s downhills held on the World Cup so far this season, and Didier Cuche has been in the top five in six of them, placing second four times. Peter Fill has been near the top in four. Bode Miller and Manuel Osborne-Paradis have been top five in three each. And then there are the Austrians, with Mario Scheiber and Michael Walchhofer each registering three top fives apiece.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVEN men’s downhills held on the World Cup so far this season, and Didier Cuche has been in the top five in six of them, placing second four times. Peter Fill has been near the top in four. Bode Miller and Manuel Osborne-Paradis have been top five in three each. And then there are the Austrians, with Mario Scheiber and Michael Walchhofer each registering three top fives apiece.
    None of those skiers has won a training run at Are, which may be the most useless information we present here. Cuche, finishing third and then fourth, and Hermann Maier, flipping those same positions, have the most consistent results in the non-count test runs down Are’s Olympia track.
    There are, however, reasons few put much stock in trainers.
    In the shortened downhill that made up the first half of the combined, the results were Bode Miller, Aksel Lund Svindal, Steven Nyman, Francois Bourque and Didier Defago, respectively. No Austrian in the top 10, but then the big downhill guns weren’t entered. Austria, among other nations, seems convinced the slalom skiers have the advantage in a super combined.
    Liechtenstein’s Marco Buechel won the final training run and does have a downhill win this season. That win, though was at Lake Louise back in November and he’s since run a string of sevenths (seventh four times, fifth and sixth once).
    Pierre-Emmanuel Dalcin won the most recent downhill, at Val d’Isere, Jan. 20, but there were questions as to the fairness of the race due to deteriorating conditions. There were similar questions of several of the World Cup downhills this season, which may help explain why the downhill wins have been spread between five guys in seven chances.
    Just two have won twice — Walchhofer, who went back to back on the same hill at Bormio, and Miller, who won on difficult tracks on separate continents, at Beaver Creek and Wengen and won the DH half of the combined here. He also was a hundredth from winning the downhill half of the Wengen combined, but has also failed to finish some downhills this year.
    All of these mentioned gentlemen could take the World Championships title. Of them, Cuche is the safest bet for a podium, with Fill close behind. Fill has never won a World Cup race, but has been on three Cup downhill podiums this season, so he has the law of averages in on his side. Still, homers that we are, we like Miller’s chances to win and can also see Svindal riding the wave of energy of the Swedish fans — plus his win on the course last season — to challenge for the top. And then we hope the Canadians prove us wrong.

Women: Paerson? She’s not bad
    Putting down money against Anja Paerson at this juncture would be foolish. She’s got two gold medals already, won the second training run and won the downhill half of the combined by .86. She has the experience, she has the home-crowd advantage and she has some very fast skis.
    This is also the best shot for a two-podium result for the United States with Lindsey Kildow and Julia Mancuso offering the best one-two punch in downhill at least since Lindh and Street. The dynamic duo has produced eight DH podiums this season. That qualifies as being “on a tear.”
    Renate Goetschl has controlled the World Cup downhill standings and has thus far withstood the onslaught of the two Americans. This is her only race at worlds and Are is a comfortable place for her, having won World Cups in three disciplines here.
    The Swiss have been having a good title meet, so we might expect to see Dominique Gisin or Nadia Styger on the podium. Canadian Kelly VanderBeek is having a stellar season and it is easy to overlook Ingrid Jacquemod. The French seem to rise to the occasion in big events, and Jacquemod has placed fifth in three separate downhills this season, so it wouldn’t take much rise to reach a podium placing.
    The gold should go to Paerson, who has no pressure on her after winning twice already, or to Goetschl, who has the pressure of all of Austria on her, but seems to like it that way. We like the chances of Kildow and Mancuso and are wary of the Swiss.