McThoughts: 8 expectations

By Published On: December 23rd, 2014Comments Off on McThoughts: 8 expectations

Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov proved an animal could be trained to anticipate dinner, but generally speaking, expectations are a purely human trait. Only man enters an event with a preconceived notion of an outcome.

U.S. ski racing fans surviving the late 1980s will appreciate how different today’s expectations are from then. Since those days of cheering “We’re number ten,” American fans have had the great benefit of learning how to deal with success. We were taught by folks like Daron Rahlves, Picabo Street, Kristina Koznick, Julie Parisien, Diann Roffe, Hilary Lindh and Tommy Moe how to push our expectations ever higher.

But fans know too well how fast expectations can get high-sided. I think of my beloved Buffalo Bills. In the preseason the possibilities climb all the way to the top rung, but one key defeat and the expectations downshift faster than a trucker on Donner Pass.

In many sports, each competitor has a 50 percent chance of victory as two foes face off. In ski racing, where 70 or more might complete, the chance of winning is more like a tenth of a percent. Even so it’s hard to blame us for the optimism. Since 2001, Lindsey Vonn, Bode Miller, Ted Ligety, Julia Mancuso and Mikaela Shiffrin have brought us 134 World Cup wins, 17 Olympic medals, and 11 World Championship victories.

We had a right to high expectations. But they were drifting away very early.

Before the season ever started, the two most prolific World Cup winners in U.S. history announced they would not attend the opening event at Soelden.

Then in Soelden, where the magnificent Ted “Mr. GS” Ligety (a three-time winner over the last four seasons, where he had never finished worse than third in six seasons) went splat – he’s 10th.

In an unexpected contrast, Ms. Shiffrin claimed the women’s GS win in a tie. But then in Levi’s opening slalom where we had reason to expect her to be a force, splat, she’s 11th. Our expectations were being rattled, shifting lower.

Then Miller posts photos on social media of chunks of blue dyed mung that had been removed from his spine in a sudden back surgery. Back surgery seems a clear deterrent to meeting any expectations.

The Copper Mountain speed arena, the not so secret weapon of U.S. early-season training, struggled with snow cover, and Ligety rips apart his hand in Vail requiring four pins be installed. We have to expect he’ll be limited to some degree.

After two seasons of nursing injury, Vonn finally gets back on her favorite race course, in Lake Louise where she has had more success than any ski racer ever had at any one site, and she finishes eighth. More critically to our expectations, she’s happy about it. She’s the third best American and is pumped. She cannot possibly carry the same load of expectation we’ve enjoyed in past seasons.

Twenty-four hours later: Bang – when we least expect it, the result is: 1 Vonn, 2 Cook, 3 Mancuso… and Laurenne Ross in sixth.  The first three-place sweep in U.S. World Cup history. Immediately followed up by Ligety rocketing from a quarter of a second down to overtake two of the best GS racers in the world, Marcel Hirscher and Alexis Pinturault. Bonus, we get Tim Jitloff in ninth.

Mind you, the podium sweep was – in terms of the world of ski racing – more of a welcome to the club than an in your face accomplishment. Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy and Germany have all enjoyed the same single race domination. Hell, in 1999 Austria had the top nine finishers in a super G at Innsbruck. Imagine what the expectations are like in that type of atmosphere.

So far the 2015 season has defied expectations and delivered when least expected. It’s tough on prognasticators, but it sure is fun. Safe speed everyone.

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About the Author: Hank McKee

In memoriam: The veteran of the staff, McKee started with Ski Racing in 1980. Over the seasons, he covered virtually every aspect of the sport, from the pro tours to junior racing, freestyle and World Cup alpine competition. He wrote the first national stories for many U.S. team stars, and was still around to report on their retirements. “Longevity has its rewards,” he said, “but it’s a slow process.”