WC Rewind: Crystal globes in the forecast

It is difficult, with two weeks of World Cup racing remaining, not to peek ahead. But there was some very interesting racing over the weekend. While several of the stars of the World Cup made their case official that the current starting order determination for downhills is unfair, Canada’s Erik Guay and Slovenia’s Andrej Jerman were collecting their first career wins in the discipline on a soft Garmisch track.

IT IS DIFFICULT, with two weeks of World Cup racing remaining, not to peek ahead. But there was some very interesting racing over the weekend. While several of the stars of the World Cup made their case official that the current starting order determination for downhills is unfair, Canada’s Erik Guay and Slovenia’s Andrej Jerman were collecting their first career wins in the discipline on a soft Garmisch track.
    The current DH start procedure is to reverse the top 30 skiers. The stars, headlined by downhill standings leader Didier Cuche, told FIS officials that starting in the late 20s is too far back, particularly when the track is deteriorating. Jerman started 11th in his win, not only his first, but also the first in DH for Slovenia ever. Guay, however, started 25th in his win, the first for Canada in a men’s DH in 13 years. Cuche, who started 30th in that second race, finished third. The Swiss veteran, by the way, leads the standings by 128 with two races remaining and is likely to win the crown without winning a single race.
    The men’s slalom was fascinating in a historic sense. Felix Neureuther, a German whose father Christian had won the first Cup slalom in the German city, 33 years previous, was in position for his first World Cup win. He didn’t quite pull it off. Austrian Mario Matt was a bolt of lightning in the race, posting a winning margin of .41. Benny Raich, in third, was 1.33 back, underscoring the two-man race aspect. It was still a great story and a darn good race.
    The women ran a pair of gate races in Spain. In the first (World Cup) GS in more than a month, Michaela Kirchgasser took her first career win with a run she felt was not so perfect. Maybe it was the painkillers, as she was nursing a sore thumb, but she beat some of the best ever with GS standings leader Nicole Hosp finishing second, 2005 GS champion Tanja Poutiainen third and 2006 GS champion Anja Paerson fourth. The slalom — to no one’s surprise — went to Marlies Schild, her sixth slalom win of the season. She had more than a second on the bulk of the field after the first run, with only Resi Stiegler inside three-quarters of a second. Schild’s seasonal performance ranks right up there with any in history.
    Which brings up the overall standings picture and that look ahead. Schild should be a shoo-in by now, but speed queen Renate Goetschl has been racing World Cup long enough to remember the last time a Canadian won a men’s downhill and simply won’t go away. She already won the super G title when Lindsey Kildow retired (seasonally) to injury and needs to finish seventh or better in either of the two remaining downhills to take that title. Schild has won the slalom crown, so the two can ski relaxed and focus on the bigger trophy. With more GS’s remaining on the schedule than other disciplines, it is possible Nicole Hosp or Julia Mancuso could make a rush for the overall, but it belongs to either Goetschl or Schild if they can maintain composure. The GS race remains relatively wide-open. Technically, there are 40 skiers who could win. More realistically, there are five, those who topped the race at Sierra Nevada, plus Mancuso and Kathrin Zettel.
    Cuche leads the men’s DH standings, Bode Miller the SG standings, Aksel Lund Svindal the GS rankings and Jens Byggmark the slalom. Of them, Cuche is the most likely to cruise to the title. None of the super G leaders has looked particularly good since Christmas. Miller hasn’t placed better than sixth since Jan. 13 and is nursing a myriad of relatively minor injuries. Nothing to send him home, but plenty enough to cause difficulties.
    Canadian John Kucera is second in the standings and his last single-digit result was Dec. 17. Italian Peter Fill, the third-ranked on the SG chart, last visited the top 10 Jan. 20. Hermann Maier sits fourth in the standings and has been the subject of heated criticism for his lack of results. Somebody needs to step up. The slalom and GS titles are wide-open with three guys at the top of each list within 26 points of each other and plenty more lurking. These could become epic battles of will and skill over the next two weeks.
    As for the overall titles, on the women’s side, Goetschl and Schild have put some distance on the overall field. In the men’s competition, Svindal continues to lead as he has since December, but outside of the World Championships where he won a couple of gold medals, his results have been of the nickel and dime variety, just consistent. He has scored in 25 races and excelled best in GS, a discipline uncontested since Jan. 6. Two remain on the schedule.
    Chief among Svindal’s overall challengers, though, is Raich. In the past two seasons, Raich has won six World Cup titles (that includes the 2006 combined), two Olympic gold medals and a World Championships silver. The man knows something about pressure and how to deal with it. The other contenders are primarily downhillers, and they’re already complaining.