The World Cup According to Grande: Soelden Men's Preview

The new fallen snow in Soelden is going to have an impact on the outcome of the men’s race, which I can promise. I have seen it there quite a few times. They inject early in the week with the plan of side slipping many times with hundreds of ski instructors to get the piste as smooth as possible. Hans Pieren of the FIS oversees this process and it is often a very nice surface. But Soelden is a little different because the women race on the hill first. It also has snowed a fair amount since they injected. So they attached snow blowers to the groomers and blew the extra snow over the B Net to clean the hill. Then they had the slippers working around the clock to get it ready for the women. Then they will have soldiers out there with shovels, cleaning the track right next to the gate. The down side of all this work is that it makes piles of snow on the low line of the women’s race track AND it gets dark in the afternoon in Soelden. So think about it, the men’s second run is the fourth run on the hill, likely without grooming to protect the surface. There will be some sloppy piles and berms as the first run course setter does his job after the girls’ race. All of his helpers will be pushing snow around and leaving a mess everywhere. And then, overnight some freezing will happen and in the morning the boys will be greeted with some bumpy conditions. By the time the second run comes around it will be worse and the lack of light will enhance the difficulty. The weather forecast calls for light snow on Sunday morning and growing heavier for the guys in the afternoon. It looks like it could be ugly. Beyond that, the weather looks to bring almost a half meter more by Monday night. So if that storm comes in a little early, life on the glacier could be very difficult on Sunday. I hope it all works out.

Over the last three years, Ted Ligety has been on the podium three times in Soelden. I was there for two of them and for his 8th from 64th a while back. He has always been ready to go at Soelden since he first got to start there. He has been the GS champion two of the last three years and has set the tone every season in Soelden. Last year it was Cuche, Ligety and Janka.  It is a very good hill for all of those guys as well as for Svindal and Jansrud.  And while Blardone and Simoncelli are up there in the start list, they tend to lack punch on the flats here at the top and bottom.

The course setters will undoubtedly play a role on Sunday. Sepp Brunner (SUI) who is one of Janka and Cuche’s coaches will set. But I doubt those two benefit much from his setting. Sepp is the technical team coach and Didier and Carlo don’t train primarily with the tech only group. The benefit from Sepp’s set will be for the likes of Viletta and Berthod. And with Albrecht not planning on being back until Lake Louise, Defago out for the season with an ACL and Zurbriggen a questionable GS commodity, Sepp will have limited positive impact for the Swiss team in this race. Matteo Guadagnini (ITA) will set the second run and will impact the Italian boys. But if the snow is falling and ruts are present, it is pretty sure that Guenther Hujara (FIS) and Hans Pieren (FIS) will have him adjust the course if it is appropriate to the track conditions. Meaning that he will not get to set a full and separate GS in the interest of staying on schedule for Television.
 
 
Here we go:

The Top 7: Janka, Ligety, Jansrud, Raich, Hirscher, Blardone and Simoncelli will draw the top seven bibs. Svindal, Cuche, Baumann, Schoerghofer, Ploner, Richard, Moelgg and Kostelic are in the back half of the draw.  When I look at this group, and I consider the history of each on this hill, I have to think that Svindal, Ligety, Janka, Cuche and Blardone will compete for the win.

Janka’s only two years he raced here he was 9th and then 3rd. That is a pretty good success rate. At that improvement rate, I would expect a win? Ligety we know, three podiums and an 8th place.  There will be more on him later. Raich has a great history in general and I have seen him win here.  Hirscher has been in the teens three times but never started in the top seven. Blardone has been near the top many times and Simoncelli has suffered here every season, never better than 8th. I think there is a good chance that the historically strong guys on this hill will repeat their performances. Janka, Ligety, Svindal, Raich, Cuche and Miller are the ones to watch. I will throw Jansrud in there as a dark-horse along with Baumann.

AMERICANS:

Ted Ligety: The best GS skier in the world. His consistency and coolness is legendary. He has tremendous skill, he knows the hill and he is a confident human being.

Bode Miller: Bode has had fantastic success in Soelden over the years. The top flat gives him a solid advantage. No one is better out of the start on a flat than him. There is a decent chance he could have a solid lead into the first split on the first run, but from the 30+ start position he will likely have, he will need to adjust tactics to be able to fight his way up on the second run.

Warner Nickerson: 32 on the FIS list and has the best start number of his career. He will have the best chance at Soelden he has had and I hope he can get it done. Every American ski racer who has ever met Warner roots for him and if you root for the underdog. Root for him on Sunday! I can only hope he gets himself a second run.

Tommy Ford: Yes, he is a good skier and yes he will be great soon, maybe even this season. But he is up against it with a start near 40 and potentially poor conditions. It would be nice to see him in the second run but I am not holding my breath.

Tim Jitloff: Starting near 50 will be a tough task for young Jit. Well I guess he is about 25 now so he is not so young anymore. It’s time to make himself a real player in the tech world and put himself into the top 30 without question. The question should be called by Sasha and Mike, top 30 by the end of the season or maybe he should be released? He shows promise and always has, but he is 25 now, time to get it on!

Nolan Kasper: Nolan has a NorAm spot and scored some World Cup slalom points last season. He is still short on World Cup GS experience and he will need to bring a little more intensity to his game in Soelden. A later start number coupled with a smaller physical stature will not bode well for him. Soelden is very flat at the top with no pitch to gain momentum. With new snow in the track, the friction factor is high and I think he could be a second out by the time he breaks into the second pitch. He’s a great skier and I think his slalom will butter his bread. But GS in Soelden is a little out of his league at this point.

Will Gregorak- The youngster from Vail is a bad-ass skier. He has all the skills. His movement pattern is right on the money and makes a strong and complete transition to the new ski giving him control over his initiation. I see big things for Will and it could start in Soelden. But he will need to summon all of his toughness just to make it down from a start position around 60. Whether he makes it down or not, whether he qualifies or not, this is a big day for him and he will have a good, solid and long career. He will also race in Beaver Creek, on his home snow and close to home…a lot ahead for this lad.

CANADIANS:

They are starting six guys with Bourque and Roy coming back from ACL surgery. The Roy injury is unbelievable. I cannot even count how many times this guy has come back from a major injury. He has no teeth, his knees are a mess, his back is bad but he just keeps coming back. I want to visit him when he is 50 or so and see how well he is walking. They also start Erik Guay, Manny O-P, Robbie Dixon and Dustin Cook who owns a NorAm start righ
t.

Bourque and Roy are tough dudes and I hope they can get it done. They will have difficult start positions but they have both been there before. Frank Bourque is coming back from a series of injuries but is very talented and has been a podium guy in GS and Super G in the past. Don’t count either of them out but they are a long shot.

Guay and Manny are out of their element a little in Soelden. I think they are both excellent but Manny has never skied at this level on a hill that can be as demanding as Soelden. Erik has scored in World Cup GS but not here…this race hill does not get the respect it deserves outside of the touring guys and coaches, but it is 65 seconds or so of nastiness.

Dustin is a new guy and he needs some luck. He is a good skier; he has a future, but just not here right now. Sorry, buddy.

Robbie Dixon is a fire-hydrant. He is the Canadian version of Andrew Weibrecht but with a more solid and calm approach. He is a very, very strong skier and can be a great GS guy on the tough hills. I look for him to get in there from his awful start position.

All of those Canadians seem like they are coming back from injury. I don’t know if that is true but it seems so. The Canadian tech program needs to step up on the GS side. They were once formidable but are lately sub-par.

My Podium:
1.    JANKA
2.    JANSRUD
3.    SVINDAL

Ligety fifth, Miller low teens, Ford 16th , sneaking into the three flip and getting a fresh course for the second run.

Good Luck boys!

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Greg “Grande” Needell grew up ski racing at Stratton Mountain,
Vermont. After graduating from SMS he skied for NCAA Division 1 St.
Lawrence University in Canton, NY where he was co-captain in 1986. Greg
returned to SMS to coach there for five years serving as the Head
Women’s Coach as well as the Head J2 Men’s Coach. He then moved to
Mission Ridge in Wenatchee, Washington in 1992 to become the Program
Director and Head Coach of the Mission Ridge Ski Club. In 1997, Greg
became the Head Coach at Mammoth Mountain, California.

In 2002 Needell was asked to join the U.S. Ski Team staff as a World
Cup SL and GS coach. From 2002 to 2008 Needell helped lead the U.S. Ski
Team Men to 43 wins, 105 podiums and 264 top ten finishes. Now at the
helm of Alpine Race Consulting, Needell offers his knowledge and
experience to clubs nationwide.

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