The World Cup According to Grande: The World Cup season as it stands

THE WORLD CUP SEASON AS IT STANDS

I was just listening to ESPN radio and draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr. was on talking about the NFL draft. Mel is a New Orleans native and was buzzing about the Saints victory in the Super Bowl over the Colts. He was asked how the house was and if things had mellowed out. He said, “No, it’s just getting going. People are coming and going, more on the way, the city is going crazy. It’s like….Kitzbuhel.”  I swear, that IS what he said. Then I realized I have not written in a long time. I have been on the road with the Mission Ridge kids and needed to sit down and commit some things to the blog.

You all may notice when you log on that there is a new format. It is the same blog, the same address, but a different blog site that allows me to advertise and collect revenue myself. There are all types available so let me know if you are interested. Link here at www.alpineraceconsulting.com.

I also did not get a really good chance to comment on Kranjska Gora and the racing I saw. But I did see Ted do a great job on a hill he loves. I also was very impressed with Kjeitl Jansrud and I think there is more to come from him. He can be very good in GS in Whistler. That hill plays to his strength.

 On the eve of the first women’s downhill training run, what do we know about the World Cup season? What will we find out later in the year? And what does it mean going into the Olympics? 

THE MEN:

Did you know that a different athlete leads every different significant globe category? I don’t count combined until they put more thought into it and more races. But with only so many days on the calendar, I say they forego Super Kombi and put more traditional GS and SG races on the calendar. Go back to the paper kombi at Kitzbuhel and Wengen where it is traditional as well as the Olympics and World Champs. But I would much rather see a Super G at Beaver Creek every year than a Kombi. And the same anywhere you can name.  But as I digress, I realize that the overall leader is Benni Raich, DH is led by Cuche, the slalom standings are led by Reini Herbst, GS is our friend Ted Ligety and Super G is Walchhofer.

The DH standings are led by Cuche. He is 88 points ahead of Janka with only Kvitfjell and Garmisch still to go. This one will be very difficult to win for anyone but Cuche. Of course, a win by Janka in Norway with a DNF by Cuche would change everything. But last year’s Norway DH had Cuche in 13th and Janka in 21st with Manny O-P in 3rd. Even that scenario would eliminate Manny. It would put Janka in a situation where he would have to win the DH in Garmisch with Cuche finishing out of the points. While this is highly unlikely, I would remind you that this is exactly what happened in the SG in Bormio 2 years ago when Hannes Reichelt pulled off the feat while Cuche choked. I was there, standing on a roof at San Pietro Jump and there is no other way to describe it.   Regardless, I think Cuche wins the DH title even though he fades down the stretch. The lead is too big.

The Super-G race is a 66 point lead by Walchhofer with 2 races to go. Kvitfjell and Garmisch.  Both tracks are good for Walchhofer and I don’t see Aksel taking it over. Aksel could make a charge in Norway but I think Walchhofer will hold him off. Benni is in 3rd in Super G but neither hill coming up suits him.

 

The Slalom title race is tight right now. Herbst leads and Lizeroux is second. There is only the Garmisch slalom left. Ivica sits 3rd but cannot win the title. But Lizeroux is only 47 points behind. Garmisch is a steep and relentless hill. The course sets have always reflected that fact as the setters need to squeeze distance to get their gate count. Anyway, Manny Moelgg out of St. Vigilo, Italy won here last year and Georgio Rocca was second. Herbst snuck into 3rd which would seal the deal on the slalom globe on the last day of the season. But there could be great drama if Lizeroux takes the lead at some point on run 2 with Herbst yet to run. A Lizeroux win and 4th place from Herbst, gives it to the Frenchman. Second for Lizeroux and 8th for Herbst gives the title to Lizeroux.  3rd for Lizeroux means Herbst needs to finish outside the top 15 as only the top 15 score at finals. So 47 points seems like it is doable but it is a tall task.

Aside from the Overall, the GS title chase is the most competitive. There are more guys involved. The overall is only more interesting because there are 6 races to decide the Overall and only 1 to decide the GS title. Ted Ligety leads the GS globe and it is his to win. He has a 43 point lead over Blardone and 46 over Hirscher. So with one race left, the place point scenarios are the same as in slalom. The only real change is that if Blardone places 2nd or better, and Ted places 7th or worse, it would hand Blardone the globe. But I will revisit this after Whistler.

The Overall is currently in the hands of Mr. Raich and it is a 110 point lead. There are a lot of speed events left on the calendar and I think Janka or Cuche could make a serious move on the title. Especially if one of them gets a little momentum coming out of Whistler.

And what does all of this mean for the Olympics? Nothing.  No single male athlete has been dominant in any event. Maybe Ted has the most momentum for GS? And Cuche might be feeling pretty good on the DH track. But there is no clear favorite in any discipline at Whistler.

THE WOMEN:

We just watched the girls go at it one more time and there was a serious let-down in all areas because most all nations had selected their teams. I felt like the intensity of the women’s racing had been exceptionally high to this point in the season. And once most nations had made their decisions, or the girls had figured it all out, St. Moritz seemed like it was difficult for them to be fired up. And I know, some of the women, or some of the viewers, or the organizers of St. Moritz, or the Swiss Federation are going to take offense. DO NOT. It is simply an observation based on what I saw compared to what I had seen thus far. It is not an indictment, it is not me thinking that the women’s tour is lame. The girls compete hard. My point is simply that there is a natural let-down when you have been competing for something all year. And the Olympic teams have been named and now we go to the big show. But the World Cup goes on, and to me it is the definition of the best skier. The one who holds the globe is the best. Because she was best over a full season. The Olympics tells me who was best on that day, on that hill, in those conditions. The one who holds the globe did it in a variety of all the aforementioned things. After grinding her way to the top level to even have a chance to win the World Cup.

With that being said, Lindsey Vonn has ALREADY clinched the Super-G title. Which means that NO MATTER what happens in Whistler this month, she is still the best Super-G skier in the world.

She also leads the Downhill standings by 119 points with 2 races left. It will take a miracle for her to not to win that globe! And it means that Maria Riesch needs to win and Lindsey needs to not score….pretty much. To give you an idea, if Maria wins both races, Lins needs to be worse than 5th in both. Remember, Maria needs to win both. And if Maria wins in Crans Montana and Lins finishes 3rd or better, that means in Garmisch that Maria needs to win on her home hill and Lins needs to not score. She will score. So wrap that one up too. So before she even starts the Olympics, she is the best Downhiller in the world.

In GS we get to stop talking about Lindsey. She has done nothing so far in this discipline. Currently, the leader is Kati Hoelzl (GER) who is closely followed by Zettel. There is only the World Cup Final GS in Garmisch left. Tina Maze (SLO) is 3rd and not in the running any more. Hoe
lzl has a 26 point lead and it will be tough to take away at home. In this case it might actually mean that Kati is the favorite in Whistler. Zettel is tiny and will have a tough time winning in Whistler. It is a relatively flat hill which allows very open distances in GS.

In Slalom, the leader is Maria Riesch. And I will tell you, as much as I like Maria, I am very surprised she has held it together to have the lead at this point. I know, I like the tall girls in slalom and I have called on them many times on many hills. But I am still surprised. I am shocked that Vonn has not contended. I am more surprised that Schild is eliminated from winning this globe. I am also surprised that Zettel has to fight this one to the wire as she trails by 23 points. And she has to do it on Maria’s home hill. Don’t get me wrong, because I think Maria is great. But I do not think she is the best woman slalom skier in the world even though she will likely win the globe. And she will be among the favorites for gold in Whistler.

More to come soon! Men’s and Women’s Olympic DH preview.

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Greg “Grande” Needell grew up ski racing at Stratton Mountain, Vermont. After graduating from SMS he skied for NCAA Division 1 St. Lawrence University in Canton, NY where he was co-captain in 1986. Greg returned to SMS to coach there for five years serving as the Head Women’s Coach as well as the Head J2 Men’s Coach. He then moved to Mission Ridge in Wenatchee, Washington in 1992 to become the Program Director and Head Coach of the Mission Ridge Ski Club. In 1997, Greg became the Head Coach at Mammoth Mountain, California.

In 2002 Needell was asked to join the U.S. Ski Team staff as a World Cup SL and GS coach. From 2002 to 2008 Needell helped lead the U.S. Ski Team Men to 43 wins, 105 podiums and 264 top ten finishes. Now at the helm of Alpine Race Consulting, Needell offers his knowledge and experience to clubs nationwide.

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