It’s officially go time for Vail/Beaver Creek 2015, and the U.S. Ski Team is ready to rumble. The red, white and blue racers have racked up 11 wins so far, matching the second highest total seen at this point of the season — ever. Will that lead to a huge haul of hardware?

Let’s see: Lindsey Vonn’s back, Birds of Prey belongs to the U.S. men, and Julia Mancuso masters the pressure at big events. So the outlook is good. But here’s who we’ll really have an eye on while we’re camped out at the Red Tail Finish Area.

Men’s Speed Events

Downhill Favorites: Kjetil Jansrud, Dominik Paris, Steven Nyman
When to Watch: Feb. 7

Kjetil Jansrud has stepped up big time since teammate Aksel Lund Svindal injured his Achilles at the beginning of the season, winning three of six downhills — including the one held on the Birds Of Prey track in December. But Dominik Paris has also been on a tear, taking the Hahnenkamm super G and finishing second in the downhill. Then there’s Steven Nyman, who finished third in December on Birds of Prey, his third podium on the track. He followed that up with a win a few weeks later in Val Gardena and ended January with a fifth-place finish in Kitzbuehel.

Don’t Count Out

• Hannes Reichelt: Three downhill podiums in Beaver Creek, Wengen winner.
• Beat Feuz: Second in Beaver Creek in December, second in Wengen two weeks ago.
• Matthias Mayer: The Olympic downhill champion had never won a race leading up to the event. He doesn’t have a win yet this year. Can he pull the upset again?
• Bode Miller: How can you ever count him out?

GEPA

Super G Favorites: Hannes Reichelt, Kjetil Jansrud, Dominik Paris
When to Watch: Feb. 4

Jansrud has finished off the super G podium just once this season, and has finished first, second, first in the other three, including second at Beaver Creek this season. Reichelt has won the Birds of Prey super G three times, including this season and is fresh off a confidence-building downhill victory in Wengen. Three super G podiums in four races (including Kitzbuehel), however, give Paris a boost, too.

Don’t Count Out

• Alexis Pinturault: Won the super G at World Cup finals and was third in Beaver Creek in December.
• Ted Ligety: No one expected Ligety to win the super G at the Schladming World Championships, but that’s exactly what he did. Plus, two top-five results in the past three super G’s at Beaver Creek.
• Andrew Weibrecht: The Warhorse rides high at big events; his only two podium finishes came at the pressure-filled Olympics.

Combined Favorites: Alexis Pinturault, Ted Ligety, Ivica Kostelic
When to Watch: Feb. 8

Pinturault has won three of the last six combined events held and has finished second in another two. The Beaver Creek downhill should suit his style and leave him within striking distance heading into the slalom run. Defending champ Ligety will have a similar advantage, but his slalom skiing hasn’t been up to par with Pinturault. The combined, meanwhile, is Kostelic’s best chance at another medal.

Don’t Count Out

• Victor Muffat-Jeandet: Second in the Wengen combined when he moved from 28th after the downhill portion to finish second with the fastest slalom run.
• Carlo Janka: Winner of the Wengen combined. He swept all three events in Beaver Creek in 2009, including the combined.
• Ondrej Bank: The only two podiums of his career have been in combined, including this season at Kitzbuehel.

Women’s Speed Events

Downhill Favorites: Lindsey Vonn, Lara Gut, Anna Fenninger
When to Watch: Feb. 6

Lindsey Vonn holds the lead in the downhill standings after posting three wins in six races, and has killer confidence after her recent record-breaking wins, not to mention some rip-roaring training on the Raptor course. But Lara Gut swept the speed races here last season and won the final downhill leading into World Champs. Last year’s overall champion, Anna Fenninger, might have something to say about the top spot on the podium. She’s finished second in the last three speed races of the season and has the technical and tactical skill to be fast on Raptor.

Don’t Count Out

• Elena Fanchini: The winner in Cortina was third on the Raptor last season.
• Tina Weirather: Struggled early in the season, but is starting to find her form, and was second last season on the Raptor.
• Tina Maze: She’s the current overall leader and Olympic downhill champ, but also unpredictable.
• Julia Mancuso: The most decorated American medalist in World Championships and Olympics.
• Viktoria Rebensburg: Known more for her GS skiing, this German has been shining in the speed events this season with two podiums in downhill. Currently sits third in the downhill standings.

Super G Favorites: Lindsey Vonn, Lara Gut, Anna Fenninger, Tina Maze
When to Watch: Feb. 3

The favorites in super G emerged over the weekend of racing in Cortina d’Ampezzo when Vonn won two of three races to become the winningest female alpine ski racer of all-time. Fenninger — the Sochi Olympic super G champ — joined Vonn on the podium, which they climbed again a week later in St. Moritz. Fenninger’s strong GS skiing will help her on the technically and tactically challenging Raptor course. Gut, however, won both the downhill and the super G last season in Beaver Creek and already owns three World Championship medals in her young career.

Don’t Count Out

• Julia Mancuso: No matter her results coming into big events, she always seems to deliver.
• Elisabeth Goergl: She became the oldest female World Cup winner earlier this season when she won the Val d’Isere super G. She also pulled off a World Championship upset in 2011.
• Nicole Hosp: Five World Championship medals; third in the final super G of this season, in St. Moritz.

Combined Favorites: Nicole Hosp, Tina Maze, Anna Fenninger
When to Watch: Feb. 9

There haven’t been any women’s World Cup combined events this season, so it’s hard to make a prediction, but Maze has already won both a downhill and slalom this season. She’ll be hard to beat. Expect Hosp to be up to the task after a win in the Aspen slalom and a couple of top-15 results in downhill, plus a silver medal in the Olympics last season behind retired German star Maria Hoefl-Riesch. Fenninger could find herself with a big lead after the downhill — but is her slalom skiing up to the task?

Don’t Count Out

• Marie-Michele Gagnon: She’ll have confidence knowing her one and only World Cup victory came last season in a combined.
• Julia Mancuso: Mancuso’s slalom skiing remains murky, but, again, she turns it up for big events.

Men’s Technical Events

Giant Slalom Favorites: Marcel Hirscher, Ted Ligety, Alexis Pinturault
When to Watch: Feb. 13

Marcel Hirscher has won every GS held this season except for one — Beaver
Creek. That win went to Ligety, the two-time defending GS world champion. Ligety’s also won Olympic gold, plus five of the last six World Cups on the Birds of Prey GS. Pinturault has finished on a GS podium in four of six races this season and was second behind Ligety on the Beaver Creek course in December.

Don’t Count Out

• Thomas Fanara: Fifth in the GS standings with a podium in Alta Badia and sixth in Beaver Creek.
• Fritz Dopfer: Fourth in the GS standings, Dopfer has been knocking on the door all season long to finally get his first win.

Slalom Favorites: Marcel Hirscher, Felix Neureuther
When to Watch: Feb. 15

How do you pick a favorite in an event that has seen six different victors in eight races this season? Hirscher and Neureuther have two wins apiece and are the only ones on tour with more than one victory. But even they have been out-skied by the likes of Mattias Hargin, Stefano Gross, Henrik Kristoffersen and Alexander Khrosolov, the other four men with wins. The final event of the Championships should provide plenty of excitement and a fitting end to the two-weeks.

Don’t Count Out
The remaining four World Cup winners in slalom this season: Hargin;
Gross; Kristoffersen; and Khoroshilov. Their results have proven that any one of them can win on any given day.

Women’s Technical Events

Giant Slalom Favorites: Tina Maze, Anna Fenninger, Eva-Maria Brem
When to Watch: Feb. 12

This may be the most wide-open event for favorites. But Maze, Fenninger, and Brem have all won GS races this season. Maze is the defending Olympic champion, Fenninger the defending GS globe winner, and Brem has finished no worse than fourth in the past seven GS races, dating back to last season.

Don’t Count Out

• Mikaela Shiffrin: Winner of the first race in a tie in Soelden, Shiffrin struggled to find that same kind of speed until the final GS leading up to Vail/Beaver Creek, when she finished third. She was second last season in the GS in Beaver Creek.
• Sara Hector: The surprising winner from Kuhtai came out of nowhere to finish on the podium in two straight races.

Slalom Favorites: Mikaela Shiffrin, Frida Hansdotter, Tina Maze
When to Watch: Feb. 14

Shiffrin, Hansdotter, and Maze are far and away the three most consistent slalom skiers in the world right now. All three have won races this season, all three sit within 46 points of each other in the slalom standings, and all three have been on the slalom podium at least three times this season. Shiffrin is the defending Olympic and world champion and would love to add a second gold to her World Championship medal count in front of hometown fans.

Don’t Count Out

• Sarka Strachova: Three World Championship medals and a recent resurgence in her skiing with her first podium since 2009 have Strachova primed to add to her World Championship medal count of three.
• Nicole Hosp: After a surprising win in Aspen in November, Hosp is not one to overlook.
• Maria Pietilae-Holmner: Has the high-end speed to win a slalom race on any given day, just as she did in Are, Sweden, in December.

USA All the Way? What the Numbers Tell Us

By Hank McKee

The Olympics and World Championships — the “big events” of the alpine schedule — have routinely been good for the Americans, and having this season’s Big One on U.S. snow can’t hurt. It seemed logical to us that World Cup results (through January) could be a good predictor for what might be expected at the Show. The numbers don’t necessarily play out, but there are some encouraging signs.

Generally speaking the U.S. team has measured up well from about 2003 onward. Yes, there are spikes in the early 1980s, but the trend since 2003 has been consistent performance at or better than the ‘80s bump. Our team scored more top-10 finishes in 2005 and 2006 than any time in history, and the best World Cup podium scores came in 2008 and 2013.

Our top medal take, however, was at Vancouver 2010 when we harnessed eight. We had six medals in 2003 (St. Moritz) and 2005 (Santa Caterina and Bormio). We had five medals at Schladming in 2013 and at Sochi last year.

Our numbers this season all but match those from the high-water marks of 2010. We have three more top 10 placings, so the depth is as good. We have one more podium (18 versus 17) and an equal number of wins (10). The logic there is that we can expect eight medals, which is no doubt false. But we should expect no less than five as produced in 2014 and 2013.

Where those medals come from is always where the speculation gets bogged down in useless fact. There is a history of totally unexpected medals coming from the likes of Julia Mancuso, Erik Schlopy and Debbie Armstrong — and don’t we relish those medals a little more than the rest? And, of course, those medals from those who excel with the pressure: Ted Ligety and Lindsey Vonn. Predicting these is folly on a grand scale.

Bottom line: The numbers tell us almost nothing. Our best looking season going into the Big Show, we had 112 top-10s, 25 podiums and 15 wins. That was 2013 when we got three medals. We’re right where we need to be, matching or slightly exceeding 2010: 45 top-10s, 18 podiums and 10 wins through January. Right on pace. Anything could happen, which is good, because it means we still have to hold the races.