There has been a lot of talk about the La Niña winter and what it could mean for skiers, but what are the implications for ski racers? It’s a different conversation because, in most cases, race venues rely less on natural snowfall and more on cold temperatures to make snow. For racers, the big variable is really the fall, particularly in Colorado, which serves as mecca for early season training at Copper, Vail, and Loveland, as well as other venues around the state. And of course, Beaver Creek hosts the early season Birds of Prey World Cup speed races in early December. Those races have been nixed once or twice due to warm temps but are generally super reliable for that time of year.

According to founding meteorologist of OpenSnow Joel Gratz, who specializes in Colorado weather, there is a 75-80% chance for a weak-to-moderate La Niña this winter. La Niña impacts temperatures and snowfall, both of which play a huge role in ski racing, particularly early season training before the bulk of natural snowfall occurs. 

Athletes and teams from all over the country — and all over the world — book lanes at venues in Colorado during the fall because the high elevation leads to lower temperatures and more snowfall compared to venues closer to sea level. Colorado venues have also bolstered their snowmaking capabilities in the last decade making it by far the most viable region for fall training.

The ability to make snow — which is significantly more important than natural snowfall — is based on the “wet bulb,” which is a combination of humidity and temperatures. According to Wikipedia, which is an authority on these kinds of things, the wet-bulb temperature is the “lowest temperature that can be reached under current ambient conditions by the evaporation of water only.”

More simply, you need temperatures to be cold, between 15-25 degrees Fahrenheit is ideal. In the fall, those temps are often reached overnight but are also feasible during the day.

Back to La Niña: Gratz shared further information about what exactly La Niña is and why it is pertinent to the weather. He explains, “La Nina is cooler-than-average ocean water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean. This translates into some changes for winter storm tracks.”

But what about the fall, Joel?

“La Nina often leads to slightly warmer-than-average temperatures during the fall,” he said.

With October upon us, Gratz confirmed that he is, in fact, seeing slightly warmer temperatures than average across the country, including Colorado. This is not great news in general for athletes that want to get on snow as soon as possible, but there is some good news: This La Niña cycle does not appear to be particularly strong, and because the accuracy of forecast models decline dramatically when looking beyond 10-15 days, we cannot be completely sure that temperatures will not drop in the coming weeks.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance? 

As you gear up for the season, remember that La Niña could lead to higher temperatures, which leads to less snowmaking. Definitely keep an eye on the forecast because as Gratz pointed out, it is hard to predict further than two weeks out, but prepare for the possibility that the artificial base ski racers rely on may come later than usual. It may even be wise to bring along an old pair of skis if you are traveling to Colorado for early season training, even though those brand new slalom skis are sitting in your garage just waiting for some action. Or, wait and see. Maybe La Niña will give us a little bit of a break. Colder temps are in the forecast.