THE NIGHT BEFORE…
It is the night before the FIS World Cup tour begins in earnest with the North American swing. The girls are in Aspen for GS and SL and the boys in Lake Louise for speed. The girls then head north for speed and the boys back down here for Beaver Creek. It’s an exciting time very year for all of us in the States because we get to experience the best in the world either live at the venue or on TV or on-line LIVE!
Yesterday, I gave some hints as to how to get information and use that information to form opinions about what is going to happen. I wrote about Aspen hand watering as opposed to injecting. Since that time it has stopped snowing, Aspen got the snow off the surface and the hill is ready to go. The snow should have a lot of grip if the snow here in Vail is even close. We have been on the injected surface here, which is buried a little under the new snow but even that has some grip to it. I think the ladies will look much better this season than last.
ASPEN FAVORITES
Tina Maze (SLO): She starts number one, which will help with the conditions IF she can take advantage and run a little tighter than she would with a groove. She is a big, strong girl and an excellent skier. She can get the job done with a good history in Aspen.
Maria Riesch (GER): I am not a big fan of her GS skiing in general. But bolstered by great GS teammates and a solid coach, I think she can do well. If the hill was flatter I would be more in her camp. She runs number two.
Kati Hoelzl (GER): She won last season and won the first run by a lot with a set by Guenther Obkircher (AUT) who will set run two. She had such a big margin on run 1 that she just needed a solid second to win the day. She goes three.
Viktoria Rebensburg (GER): My favorite GS skier on the girls’ tour. She is solid; she makes an excellent weight transfer in transition and stacks herself well over the outside ski above the gate while staying parallel. I like her skiing a lot, and I think she could win if she stays on her feet. She starts six, which is not the best on this snow. But two solid runs will get it done.
Tessa Worley (FRA): She is a force and has won here before. I watched her ski the other day and I am a fan. Aspen is steep enough so her size will not be a detriment. But with the 14 start position, I feel it will be a reach to be close enough after run one to be competitive in the end.
OTHERS:
Federica Brignone (ITA): Her breakout was here last season and I hope to see more from her again. I like her skiing, she is young, she is unheralded and she is pretty brave on the hill. She has the 9 number which is just about as good as she could do.
Manu Moelgg (ITA): She starts four and Aspen should be a good hill for her although her two best finishes at the most famous ski town in America are seventh and tenth. I am a pretty big fan of the girl from St. Vigilio and I think she can win one of these races at Aspen.
AMERICANS
Julia starts 18 and Lindsey 19. Maybe Julia will interfere with Lindsey near the bottom so she gets flagged? Oh, wrong race. I hope the interval is long enough! Anyway, I think Julia showed some confidence in Soelden on the new stuff and I did get to see her ski the other day. I think she is close. She is skiing in a stronger hip position than I remember so I think she has a shot at the top 10. She has done well here in the past. Lindsey seemed very happy and relaxed at training the last few days. But her GS is her weakest discipline so I would guess that a top 10 would be thrilling and a top 15 expected. Sarah goes 21, McJames 45, Laurenne Ross 50 and Leann Smith 53 after winning the time trial the other day. Sarah should convert this start into points because she is good on this hill and this type of snow. Megan has scored here before. But I think it will be a tough task for Laurenne and Leann to get second runs. I wish them all the best and we will be rooting for them here in Vail!
CANADIANS
M-P Prefontaine has a nice number at 32 and Mitch Gagnon at 35 also has a decent start. They are the only two Canadians in the race and I think that getting a second run from either or both will be a “win” for them. M-P scored here last year and Mitch is coming off a great result in Soelden in 13th. Aspen should be good for both of them and they should race with confidence.
DARK HORSES:
Fabienne Suter (SUI): According to the Swiss staff she is very good on grippy snow and steeper hills. On that information alone, I am putting her on the short list of people to watch from outside the top 15.
Anemone Marmottan (FRA): Ninth in Soelden, 11th at the Olympics. I think she will continue to be a player in GS and could crack the top 10 again.
Anne-Sophie Barthet (FRA): No reason except she announced her arrival on the World Cup loudly in both the GS and SL in Aspen last season. Confidence goes a long way. But since that time, she has been enduring a long string of DNF and DNQs and has experienced a back injury. I think she will resurface in Aspen with the confidence she has on this hill.
Niki Hosp (AUT): People tend to forget quickly. Niki has been injured more than once in the last few seasons and is coming back yet again. She starts 36 but do not ignore her presence. She has been a World Champion in GS, the GS globe winner and she has won the BIG globe too. She was fourth in Aspen in 2006. She also celebrated a birthday on the sixth of November which makes her a Scorpio, which makes her cool.
Podium? Rebensburg, Hoelzl, Maze…sound familiar?
THE BOYS IN LAKE LOUISE
After an overnight of -15C and a high tomorrow around race time at -7C, the start numbers will not be as big of an issue as it could be if it were to be much colder, or snowing. The start numbers have been drawn and there is a definite theme for the American boys.
Cuche picked 21 and Janka 16, which tells me there is a feeling of trust in the surface in Lake Louise. But it also tells me that early numbers could work out with the temperatures where they will be. Bode took 12 and Sullivan and Weibrecht pulled two and three respectively. Both of them like to have early numbers. And pseudo-American Patrick Jaerbyn, the old man of the tour and Vail resident, drew number 1. For me, this is the most interesting first three on a DH start list I can remember in a long-time.
FAVORITES
Didier Cuche (SUI): He is the globe winner; he is the defending Lake Louise DH champion. I see no reason not to think he will compete again. Head skis seem to be running up there and he picked his number. Look for something strong from him.
Aksel Lund Svindal (NOR): I like Askel, I like the way he skis, and I would pick him for a podium every time. He won the first training run. He goes 18 and I think that was a good choice.
Carlo Janka (SUI): The Ice Man has done nothing really so far this season. But Soelden is in October and he did not go to Levi. He can certainly compete but he was 11th today with poor turning splits. I am going to stay away from him until he does something. He has been 2nd here twice but yet I am going to ignore him this year? I think I am.
Peter Fill (ITA): Peter is coming back from injury so I would normally stay away from him but he is a strong skier and an excellent glider and he has won in Lake Louise two years ago.
Michael Walchhofer (AUT): He is a very tall man and sometimes I wonder if he has started to breakdown physically? He has been very good for a long time. He also has done very well at Lake Louise. I am very intere
sted to watch him but I am not picking him to win.
Mario Scheiber (AUT): This guy is built like a bowling ball and he is an excellent skier. I would not doubt a great performance from him at all. A nice number at 19.
AMERICANS
As I said earlier, I like the early numbers for Sully and Weibrecht in this instance. I do not think the track will be in play all that much and I know both of them like to start early. The only real negative is that they will go back to back and they ski on Rossignol so if there is going to be a last-minute ski selection it will not benefit either of them. It could benefit Tommy Biesemeyer who starts last! Bode goes 12 and I also like this number. I think it is entirely possible that an early draw in the 8-22 category is good for tomorrow. Steven Nyman has had some solid training runs and he is finally feeling a little better with his back pain. Look for Steven to push into the top 20 or even 15. I like his splits in the middle, turnier sections and his serviceman, Leo Mussi, is one of the best. Erik Fisher has been non-existent in the training runs but he has always been a race-day guy. Look for him to step-up. Ted Ligety is not on the start order for tomorrow and I don’t know why unless he was just getting some time on the hill in order to be more prepared for SG. And starting last is Tommy Biesemeyer. I am going to out on a limb and call Biesemeyer for his first-ever World Cup points if he can nail the fall-away to C turn section.
CANADIANS
Erik Guay and Manny O-P have great start numbers in the teens. Robbie Dixon goes 27 and could be a force this year. Jan Hudec is on yet another comeback going 42. L-P Helie is starting 60 and he is a guy who scored points last season here in 22nd. The Canadians have always come up with magic in Lake Louise and I would look for good things from Guay and Manny this year. And before I am done with Lake Louise, I need to give some recognition to Dustin Cook, who is starting as a Nor Am quota guy and Ben Thomsen who I last saw running a FIS DH in Apex, BC last January.
DARK HORSES
I think the best Canadians are good dark horse candidates. As are Weibrecht and Sullivan with their start numbers and recent struggles in Lake Louise. But I think Andrej Jerman is a real candidate for a high finish with very little history worth mentioning in Lake Louise. He was 40th today, 48th last season and has only scored once here (12th in November 2007). But he is 32 years old and a very experienced downhiller. He has won in Bormio and Garmisch and has two other podiums. He is also a contender at all the big races in Europe in January. I don’t know why, I just have a feeling about him and he is very, very good.
PODIUM: Cuche, Svindal, Miller
Here we go everyone, and go get your picks done on www.fantasyskiracer.com
Click here to go to Alpine Race Consulting
Greg “Grande” Needell grew up ski racing at Stratton Mountain,
Vermont. After graduating from SMS he skied for NCAA Division 1 St.
Lawrence University in Canton, NY where he was co-captain in 1986. Greg
returned to SMS to coach there for five years serving as the Head
Women’s Coach as well as the Head J2 Men’s Coach. He then moved to
Mission Ridge in Wenatchee, Washington in 1992 to become the Program
Director and Head Coach of the Mission Ridge Ski Club. In 1997, Greg
became the Head Coach at Mammoth Mountain, California.
In 2002 Needell was asked to join the U.S. Ski Team staff as a World
Cup SL and GS coach. From 2002 to 2008 Needell helped lead the U.S. Ski
Team Men to 43 wins, 105 podiums and 264 top ten finishes. Now at the
helm of Alpine Race Consulting, Needell offers his knowledge and
experience to clubs nationwide.
About the Author: Pete Rugh
